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我一直在认真考虑经济停滞的原由问题。五十年前的1929年,我开始从事经济工作,当时周期性的经济衰退已达最低点。这一年的失业率达到23.6%,而在1933年竟升高到24.9%。在整整十年里,失业率始终保持在两位数上。直到1933年,经济才开始恢复,这次经济衰退的持续时间之长,打破了以往的历史记录。然而,即使在经济景气最佳的1937年,失业率仍达14.3%,而在当年年底,失业率又开始猛升。那一年,我取得了哲学博士的学位。这一连串的情况,对于当时的我——一个年轻的经济学家——来说,怎么能理解到这个基本的经济问题并非经济景气的循环而是长期经济停滞问题呢?
I have been seriously considering the cause of economic stagnation. Fifty years ago, in 1929, I started my economic work, when the cyclical recession hit its lowest point. The unemployment rate this year reached 23.6%, but in 1933 actually increased to 24.9%. In a full decade, the unemployment rate has remained at double digits. It was not until 1933 that the economy started to recover. The duration of the recession broke the historical record. However, even in the best economy in 1937, the unemployment rate still reached 14.3%, while the unemployment rate started to soar again by the end of the year. That year, I got a PhD degree. How can we understand that this basic economic issue is not a cycle of economic prosperity but a problem of long-term economic stagnation when I, as a young economist of our time, were in this series?