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本文通过构建一个包含石油价格冲击的DSGE模型,基于经济波动风险的最小化,研究了石油价格冲击对中国货币供应机制的影响。在模型结构参数贝叶斯估计的基础上,通过货币政策前沿的比较分析,回答了中国货币供应机制是否应该对石油价格冲击做出反应以及应该如何反应的政策问题。研究结果表明,中国当前的货币供应机制并没有对石油价格冲击做出显著的反应,但为了减小经济波动的风险,中国的货币供应机制在对产出增长和通货膨胀反应的同时,对石油价格冲击做出反应具有必要性。
In this paper, by constructing a DSGE model that contains the impact of oil price shocks, this paper studies the impact of oil price shocks on China’s money supply mechanism based on minimizing the risk of economic fluctuations. Based on the Bayesian estimation of the structural parameters of the model, a comparative analysis of the frontier of monetary policy answers the question of whether China’s money supply mechanism should respond to the oil price shock and how it should react. The results show that China’s current money supply mechanism does not respond significantly to the impact of oil price shocks. However, in order to reduce the risk of economic fluctuations, China’s monetary supply mechanism, while responding to output growth and inflation, It is necessary to react to price shocks.