论文部分内容阅读
目的相互嵌套应用捕获-再捕获法和除数法估计重庆市男男性行为人群(MSM)人群规模,为艾滋病防治工作提供科学依据。方法 2012年在为期2个月的第1次捕获期间记录光顾重庆市城区4个男男同志酒吧人次数,又结合再捕获时的面对面访谈机会对调查对象光顾男男同志酒吧的平均次数进行调查,相互嵌套应用捕获-再捕获法和除数法对2012年重庆市MSM人群规模进行估计。结果除数法估计重庆市MSM人群规模为11 483人;捕获-再捕获法估计重庆市MSM人群规模为16 891人。2012年重庆市MSM人群规模区间为11 483人到16 891人。结论除数法适用于对MSM人群中相对活跃人群的规模进行估计,在捕获-再捕获法中嵌套使用除数法花费低,可低价高效地反映估计人群的规模,两种相互嵌套使用可行。
Objective To establish a population-based MSM population using the capture-re-capture method and the divisor method to provide a scientific basis for HIV / AIDS prevention and control. Methods In 2012, during the first 2-month capture period, the number of patronage of 4 male gay bars in downtown Chongqing was recorded and the average number of paired male gay bars surveyed was investigated based on the opportunity of face-to-face interviews at the time of recapture , Nesting each other using capture-recapture method and divisor method to estimate the MSM population in Chongqing in 2012. Results The divisor method was used to estimate the population size of MSM in Chongqing was 11 483 persons. The capture-recapture method estimated the population size of MSM in Chongqing was 16 891. In 2012, the MSM population in Chongqing ranged from 11,483 to 16,891. Conclusion The divisor method is suitable for estimating the size of a relatively active population in an MSM population. The use of the divisor method in the capture-recapture method is less costly and can reflect the estimated population size less expensively and efficiently, and two nested uses are feasible .