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企业财务风险是指由多种因素的相互作用,使企业不能实现预期效益。目前主要采用以线性回归为基础的格兰杰方法发现企业运行指标之间的因果关系,但使用这种方法所发现的因果关系在理论和应用两方面均具有局限性。本文结合专家知识和打分—搜索方法进行贝叶斯网络学习,并将贝叶斯网络用于企业财务风险因果关系发现和分析,可为企业防范和管理财务风险提供决策支持。
Enterprise financial risk refers to the interaction of many factors, so that enterprises can not achieve the expected benefits. At present, the Granger method based on linear regression is used to find out the causal relationship between enterprise operation indexes. However, the causal relationship discovered by this method has limitations both in theory and application. In this paper, Bayesian network learning is based on expert knowledge and scoring - search methods, and the Bayesian network is used to find and analyze the causal relationship between corporate financial risks, which can provide decision support for enterprises to prevent and manage financial risks.