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本文应用系统工程的理论方法,通过构建状态转移矩阵(STM)模型,定量分析了人口“城乡-年龄”结构联动对城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性的影响机理,研究表明城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续性受到“农村人口、农民工和城镇人口”数量及其结构变动、“未成年人口、劳动年龄人口、老年人口”数量及其结构变动的双重影响。基于模型推导结果和研究结论,本文提出实现城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续发展的相关对策建议,以期为加快建立覆盖城乡居民的养老保险体系提供决策依据和实践参考。
This paper applies the theory of system engineering to construct the state transition matrix (STM) model to quantitatively analyze the influence mechanism of the linkage between population “urban-rural-age ” structure on the sustainability of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers. The research shows that the basic principle of urban workers The sustainability of the pension insurance system is affected by changes in the number and structure of “rural population, migrant workers and urban population” and changes in the number of “minorities, working-age population, elderly population” and their structural changes. Based on the results of the model and the conclusion of the study, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on how to realize the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance system for urban workers, with a view to providing decision-making basis and practical reference for accelerating the establishment of the pension insurance system covering urban and rural residents.