本期专题是市场趋势预测。人们已经越来越清楚今天企业的竞争首先是企业家们市场预见力的竞争。十几年前,人们不会重视市场预测问题,因为那时在人们心目中市场需求是几十年不变的,人们只希望定量供应的标准提高一些,能搞到一张自行车供应票。谁知改革开放十几年下来,不仅取消了凭票供应,中国还成为诸多商品的世界第一大生产国,出现电视、冰箱等大家电生产能力大量闲置,一向是商品短缺的社会突然让位于市场短缺的社会,致使很多企业家还不能适应。今天,决定企业生存发展的首要因素不是自身的生产能力,而是市场的容量。市场好比是土壤,在贫瘠的土地上很难有健壮的企业生长。过去辉煌的三转一响:手表、缝纫机、自行车和收音机的生产企业都因市场的收缩而日益艰难,然而在新生的市场上,如新型建材、室内装饰、化妆品业却呈爆发之势。行业兴旺企业才能兴旺,企业经营成功首先还不在于内部管理如何,而在于您是否置身于上升的朝阳行业之中。 This issue is a forecast of market trends. It has become increasingly clear that today’s corporate competition is first and foremost the competition of entrepreneurs’ market foresight. More than a decade ago, people would not attach importance to market prediction because at that time people’s market demand was unchanged for decades. People only hoped that the standards for quantitative supply would increase and that they could get a bicycle supply ticket. Who knows that more than ten years of reform and opening up has not only eliminated the supply of tickets, but China has also become the world’s largest producer of many commodities. TVs, refrigerators, and other home appliances have produced a large number of unused production capacity. It has always been a sudden shortage of goods for society. In a society with a shortage of markets, many entrepreneurs cannot adapt. Today, the primary factor that determines the survival and development of an enterprise is not its own production capacity, but the capacity of the market. The market is like a soil, and it is difficult to have a robust enterprise growing in a barren land. Three rounds of glory in the past: Manufacturers of watches, sewing machines, bicycles and radios have become increasingly difficult due to shrinking markets. However, in the new markets, such as new building materials, interior decoration, and cosmetics, they have shown explosive trends. Prosperous industries thrive, and business success is not about how internal management is. It is whether you are in the rising sunrise industry.