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2014年第一季度中国26个省份~①中有4省的房地产投资开始出现负增长,其中2个省份同比下滑25%。从全国范围来看,各项房地产市场领先指标在第一季度都有明显下降。目前的问题不再是面临结构性过剩的中国房地产市场是否可能或何时出现调整,而是调整的幅度究竟有多大。我们认为,自2013年年中实施的紧缩性货币政策已经引发市场回调;除非政策由紧转松,否则下降趋势将继续。房地产市场大幅调整影响到今年经济增长的风险目前已然上升。我们在本报告中对房地产投资作了两种情境分析:1)今年的投资增速较2013年水平下降6个百分点;2)投资增速下降12个百分点。如果没有出台刺激性政策,我们预计情境一和情境二将分别导致GDP增速降至6.7%和5.8%。我们的基准预测是,政府将放宽财政政策、货币政策和房地产行业政策以实现2014年7.4%的GDP增长。我们预计由于今年政策放松加剧未来供应过剩的问题,2015年经济增长将放缓至6.8%。
In the first quarter of 2014, real estate investment in 4 provinces in China began to show negative growth in 26 provinces ~ 1 of which 2 provinces witnessed a year-on-year decrease of 25%. From a national perspective, the leading indicators of the real estate market have dropped significantly in the first quarter. The current issue is no longer whether the Chinese real estate market facing a structural surplus will be adjusted or not, but how big the adjustment will be. In our view, the tight monetary policy implemented since mid-2013 has triggered a market correction; the downward trend will continue unless the policy is tightened easing. The risk of a sharp adjustment of the real estate market affecting the economic growth this year has now risen. We have made two scenario analyzes of real estate investment in this report: 1) Investment growth of this year is 6% lower than that of 2013; 2) Investment growth is down by 12%. Without stimulus, we expect Scenario One and Scenario Two to reduce GDP growth to 6.7% and 5.8% respectively. Our benchmark projection is that the government will ease fiscal, monetary and real estate policies to achieve 7.4% GDP growth in 2014. We expect economic growth to slow to 6.8% in 2015 due to the policy easing this year exacerbating the problem of excess supply in the future.