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番茄刺皮瘿螨是近10多年来蔬菜生产上新发生为害的害螨。为研究该螨的预警技术,分析了上海市9年的测报调查资料,利用数理统计方法筛选出影响该螨发生的关键因子,即春番茄5月下旬的有螨株率、7月上旬至9月中旬的旬平均气温、6月上旬至9月中旬的累计降雨量、累计雨日、累计日照时数等。以11月旬均有螨株率为年度定案因子,建立了数值化预测模型6个。其中,最佳模型预测的拟合正确率可达99%以上。进一步探讨了在有历史数据的条件下,仅以气象要素(与均值关系)建立预测模型、简化常规测报调查的可行性。
Tomato sarcoptic scabies mites is the last 10 years of vegetable production on the new harm of harmful mites. In order to study the early-warning technology of the mite, the survey data of 9-year-old survey in Shanghai were analyzed. The key factor influencing the occurrence of the mite was screened by mathematical statistics, that is, the rate of the mite plant in late May in spring tomato, Average temperature in mid-month, accumulated rainfall in early June to mid-September, accumulated rainy days, accumulated sunshine hours, and the like. In the end of November all the mite strain rate was the annual fixed factor, established numerical prediction model 6. Among them, the best model prediction fitting accuracy of up to 99%. This paper further explores the feasibility of establishing a forecasting model based on meteorological elements only (with mean) under the condition of historical data to simplify the routine survey.