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本文运用新经济地理学的理论对城市经济增长模型进行了拓展,详细分析了集聚效应和拥挤效应对城市规模的影响机制。通过将基本公共服务因素和房价因素引入拥挤函数对拥挤效应做了进一步的细化,并将拥挤函数纳入增长函数,来构建分析稳态演进路径的理论模型。该模型显示,城市规模最后都会收敛于适宜规模,适宜规模是动态变化的,它跟城市经济状况,房价,基本公共服务水平有关,行政等级也会影响到城市的适宜规模。文章利用中国35个大城市2003-2012年的城市面板数据进行实证检验,结果与理论模型的基本吻合,房价和基本公共服务对城市规模有显著影响。本文还对不同行政层级的城市做了进一步分析,发现不同行政层级城市适宜规模的特点。
This article uses the theory of New Economic Geography to expand the model of urban economic growth and analyzes in detail the mechanism of agglomeration effect and congestion effect on the urban scale. By introducing the basic public service factors and house price factors into the congestion function, the congestion effect is further refined, and the congestion function is included in the growth function to build a theoretical model for the analysis of the steady-state evolution path. The model shows that city scale will eventually converge to a suitable scale and the appropriate scale is dynamically changing. It is related to the urban economic status, house prices and basic public service level, and the administrative level will also affect the appropriate scale of the city. The article uses the urban panel data of 35 major cities in China from 2003 to 2012 for empirical test. The results are in good agreement with the theoretical models. Housing prices and basic public services have a significant impact on the urban scale. This article also made further analysis of the different administrative levels of the city and found that different administrative levels of cities suitable for the characteristics of the scale.