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地方官员任期变化对地方经济社会发展具有重大影响。近年来我国政府治理中存在的一个突出问题是地方官员频繁调动、任期缩短。通过对2003~2012年全国260个省辖市相关数据的分析表明,市委书记和市长在多地任职的从政履历对于其获得提拔的正面影响十分显著。同时,市委书记和市长在平调时,在正式的职务层级晋升之外,还具有通过“小步快跑”获得同一职务层级内“微调”式进步的人事激励。此外,市委书记和市长的频繁调动存在沿行政层级自上而下的传导。官员任期变化对于官员行为激励产生了扭曲,进而对地方经济社会发展造成影响。
Changes in the tenure of local officials have a significant impact on local economic and social development. In recent years, one of the prominent problems in the government administration in our country is the frequent transfer of local officials and the shortening of their term of office. Through the analysis of the data from 260 provinces in 2003 ~ 2012, it shows that the positive influence of the postscript of secretary of the municipal party committee and the mayor on the promotion of employment is significant. At the same time, Party secretaries and mayors, in addition to their official job promotion, have the incentive to “fine-tune” progress within the same job hierarchy through “small steps and run”. In addition, the frequent mobilization of party committees and mayors has top-down conduction along the administrative level. The change of official tenure has distorted the incentives of officials, which in turn has an impact on the local economic and social development.