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为了尝试计算机模拟方法能否成为制定作物保险保费的辅助性工具,该研究运用计算机模拟模型预测冰雹对作物产量的影响。通过对现有EPIC(综合气候因素的环境政策)模型增加冰雹天气模块,即冰雹事件发生概率的数学模型,模拟冰雹对作物产量的影响。除此之外,该研究还模拟了干旱和霜冻等天气因素对美国Iowa,Illinoi和Indiana等3个玉米带州作物产量的影响。首先介绍数据来源及处理方法,讨论建立冰雹模拟模型过程以及对模型进行有效性检验;然后运用统计分析方法对模型模拟结果与实际观察结果进行比较,检验模型模拟结果的准确性。结果表明EPIC模型可以达到95%甚至更高的产量预测的准确性;同时,冰雹灾害模拟结果也可以达到一个较为合理的准确性(R2>0.7)。这些结果表明本研究所建立的增加冰雹模块的EPIC模型可以作为一个较为可靠的冰雹引起的作物产量损失的预测方法.该模型可以用来模拟冰雹事件发生的概率以及其对各种作物产量造成的损失。
In an attempt to test whether computer modeling can be a complementary tool in developing crop insurance premiums, the study used computer simulations to predict the effects of hail on crop yields. By adding the hail weather module to the existing EPIC (Environmental Policy for Integrated Climate Factors) model, a mathematic model of hail occurrence probability, the effect of hail on crop yield is simulated. In addition, the study also simulates the effects of weather factors such as drought and frost on crop yields in three corn belt states such as Iowa, Illinoi and Indiana in the United States. Firstly, the data source and processing method are introduced. The process of establishing hail simulation model is discussed and the validity of the model is tested. Then the statistical analysis is used to compare the model simulation results with the actual observation results to verify the accuracy of the model simulation results. The results show that the EPIC model can achieve the accuracy of 95% or more of the yield forecast; meanwhile, the hail disaster simulation results can reach a more reasonable accuracy (R2> 0.7). These results show that the EPIC model of hailstorm increase established in this study can be used as a reliable prediction method of crop yield loss caused by hail.The model can be used to simulate the probability of occurrence of hail and its effect on various crop yields loss.