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影子银行在对正规金融进行补充的同时，也为金融体系的健康发展带来了风险。为了测度出庆阳市商业银行、小贷公司与担保公司的系统性风险程度、影响力系数及感应度系数，本文结合风险估测模型中的矩阵模型与马尔可夫过程，构建风险传染矩阵模型，利用甘肃省庆阳市实证数据，进行了实证检验。最后提出了规范影子银行发展的对策建议。“,”The shadow banking is supplementary for the formal finance, but at the same time, it also brings the risk to the healthy development of the financial system. In order to measure the systemic risk degree, influence coefficient and sense degree coefficient of commercial banks, small-sum loan companies and guarantee companies of Qingyang city, based on the matrix model of risk estimation model and Markov process, the paper builds a risk contagion matrix model, and using the empirical data of Qingyang city, carries on the empirical test. At last, the paper puts forward the measures to regulate the development of shadow banking.