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苹果绵蚜是苹果上一种重要的检疫性害虫,每年给苹果产区造成严重的经济损失.预测苹果绵蚜适生性区域和影响其定殖扩散的环境因子,能够开展苹果绵蚜分布区域测报、制定有效的检疫措施并为防治决策提供依据.本研究基于最大熵算法的生态位模型MaxEnt和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS对苹果绵蚜进行适生区分析及预测,用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)对预测模型和预测结果进行评估,并用Jackknife方法分析影响绵蚜发生的重要因子.结果表明,苹果绵蚜在我国适生范围很广,其中,辽宁、山东、河南、河北、安徽、江苏、陕西等省的适生性指数较高,对苹果绵蚜发生具有重要影响的是与温度相关的环境因子.
Apple aphid is an important quarantine pest on apple and causes serious economic loss to apple producing area every year.It is predicted that the suitable area of apple aphid and its environmental factors that affect the colonization and spread of apple aphid could forecast the distribution area of apple aphid , To develop effective quarantine measures and to provide a basis for prevention and control decision-making.In this study, based on the maximum entropy algorithm MaxEnt and ArcGIS geographic information system software ArcGIS apple aphid suitable area for the analysis and prediction, using the working curve ( ROC) were used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and Jackknife method was used to analyze the important factors affecting the occurrence of Aphis gossypii. The results showed that the application range of Aphis gossypii was very wide in China. Among them, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui and Jiangsu , Shaanxi and other provinces of the higher fitness index, occurrence of apple aphid has an important impact on the temperature-related environmental factors.