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评价正常经济波动对于资源配置和产业结构演进的正负效应,西方市场经济国家几百年的产业史已经提供了足够的评价依据。本文基于经济波动的主要历史事实,针对我国理论界有关经济波动的某些基本观点,讨论两个问题:相对规范的经济周期的存在依赖于何种条件;我国的经济波动是否属于周期性波动。一、经济周期波动的存在条件鉴于长周期概念的不确定性和短周期的随机性,以及商榷对象的适应范围,这里对经济周期波动概念的讨论仅以中周期为限。由熊彼特进一步划分并为西方学者普遍接受的7—11年中周期(或朱格拉周期),实际上
Evaluation of normal economic fluctuations For the positive and negative effects of resource allocation and industrial structure evolution, the industrial history of western market economy countries for several hundred years has provided sufficient basis for evaluation. Based on the main historical facts of economic fluctuations, this paper aims at some basic views about the economic fluctuations of the theoretical circles in our country and discusses two issues: what are the conditions for the existence of a relatively normal economic cycle; and whether or not our economic fluctuations belong to cyclical fluctuations. First, the existence of the conditions of the economic cycle fluctuations Given the long-term concept of uncertainty and randomness of the short cycle, as well as to discuss the scope of the object, the discussion of the concept of economic cycle fluctuations only in the medium cycle. The 7-11 mid-cycle (or the Jugla cycle) further divided by Schumpeter and generally accepted by Western scholars actually