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１９９２～１９９５年在玉溪市北城镇刺桐关办事处石狗头村，对云南松纵坑切梢小蠹进行了系统的调查及试验研究，得出小蠹成虫发生量的预测预报方法，即应用有效虫口基数法测报下一代小蠹成虫发生量，准确率达８５％以上。并初步建立了小蠹发生量的曲线回归测报模型：Ｙ＝０．１２９４０８８６４Ｘ０．９８７９１６５４２，相关因子为云南松受害株率，用于测报越冬代及下一代成虫发生量；多元回归测报模型：Ｙ＝－７９．０５２６＋０．４５０４Ｘ１＋５．３３６７Ｘ２＋０．１７１８Ｘ３±０．２５，相关因子是越冬虫口基数，４月上旬温度、雨量，用于测报下一代成虫发生量：二元回归测报模型：Ｙ＝－０．６２８２＋０．０４１５Ｘ１＋０．１１９２Ｘ２±１．５，相关因子是林木受害株率，用于测报越冬代及下一代小蠹成虫发生量。上述模型准确率均达８０％以上，具有较好的实用价值，为进行综合治理提供可靠的科学依据
From 1992 to 1995, we conducted a systematic investigation and experimental study on Pinctada microphylla of Pinus yunnanensis in Shi Ketou village, Jichengguan Town, Beicheng Town, Yuxi City, and obtained the prediction and forecast method of the occurrence of Pinus densophylla. Effective insect population base number method to measure the occurrence of the next generation Beetles adults, the accuracy rate of 85%. And the initial regression model was established: Y = 0.129408864X0.987916542, the correlation coefficient was the rate of the damaged plants of P. yunnanensis, which was used to measure the incidence of overwintering and the generation of the next generation adults; Multiple regression model: Y = -79.0526 +0.4504X1 + 5.3367X2 + 0.1718X3 ± 0.25, the correlation coefficient is the number of overwintering insect population, the temperature and rainfall in early April are used to measure the occurrence of the next generation of adult worms: Binary regression model: Y = -0.6282 +0 .0415X1 + 0.1192X2 ± 1.5, and the correlation coefficient is the plant damage rate of trees, which is used to measure the incidence of overwintering generation and adult beetles. The accuracy of the above models are above 80%, has good practical value, to provide a reliable scientific basis for comprehensive management