处于转型时期的中国,消费波动能平抑产出波动吗?动态来看,基于全期样本的研究表明:1978～2005年间政府消费波动对产出波动产生了平抑作用,而居民消费波动未对产出波动产生平抑作用,总的来看,消费波动未能平抑产出波动。基于滚动样本的研究表明:居民消费波动1996年后,政府消费波动1992年后对产出波动产生了平抑作用,总的来看,消费波动自1996年起有效地平抑了产出波动。 In the transitional period of China, can consumer volatility stabilize output fluctuations? From a dynamic point of view, a full-period sample study shows that government consumption volatility has a stabilizing effect on output volatility from 1978 to 2005, Out of the fluctuations have a stabilizing effect, on the whole, consumer fluctuations did not stabilize output fluctuations. The research based on the rolling sample shows that after the household consumption fluctuated in 1996, the government consumption volatility had a stabilizing effect on the output fluctuation after 1992, and on the whole, the consumption fluctuation has effectively suppressed the output fluctuation since 1996.