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本文基于动态空间计量方法和京津冀区县经济数据,探讨京津冀区域经济面临的空间溢出效应,结果表明:(1)就现状而言,2008~2012年京津冀各区县本地经济积累、投资活动和公共服务显著地促进本地经济发展;本地经济积累还能促进周边地区经济发展,但本地投资和公共服务则抑制周边地区经济发展。(2)就未来趋势而言,本地经济主要靠本地投资活动和公共支出拉动;而本地投资活动和公共支出对周边经济的“阴影效应”和“竞争效应”仍然存在。
Based on the dynamic spatial measurement method and the economic data of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei counties, this paper discusses the spatial spillover effects of the regional economy in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Province. The results show that: (1) , Investment activities and public services have significantly promoted the development of the local economy; the accumulation of local economy can also promote the economic development in the surrounding areas, while the local investment and public services have inhibited the economic development in the surrounding areas. (2) For the sake of future trends, the local economy is mainly driven by local investment and public expenditure. However, the “shadow effect” and “competitive effect” of local investment and public expenditure on the surrounding economy still exist.