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利用近36年河南省旱灾统计资料,基于Hurst指数、小波分析、专业化指数和空间自相关对河南省农作物干旱灾情的时空演化规律进行了研究。结果表明:(1)近36年河南农作物受灾、成灾和绝收面积时间序列的Hurst指数分别为0.9167、0.8441、0.8011,过程均具有很强的正持续性;(2)河南农作物受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积均存在多时间尺度特征,大周期变化嵌套小周期变化;(3)河南的旱灾受灾面积和成灾面积在空间分布上均表现出明显的集聚性,主要位于河南的南部和东南部的地市,全省旱灾防控可向这些地区倾斜;(4)河南西北部地市的农业气象灾害中以旱灾为主,防控政策应向旱灾倾斜。
Based on the drought statistics of Henan Province in recent 36 years, the temporal and spatial evolution of crop drought in Henan Province was studied based on Hurst index, wavelet analysis, specialization index and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that: (1) The Hurst exponents of the time series of the affected crops in Henan Province during the past 36 years were 0.9167, 0.8441 and 0.8011, respectively, with strong positive continuity. (2) The affected area of Henan crops was There are many time-scale features and large-cycle nested small-period changes in the area of catastrophe and the area of catastrophe. (3) The disaster-affected area and disaster-affected area of Henan show obvious agglomeration in the spatial distribution, mainly in the southern part of Henan And the southeastern part of the city, the province’s drought control can be tilted to these areas; (4) drought and agro-meteorological disasters in the cities and prefectures of northwestern Henan Province, and prevention and control policies should be tilted toward the drought.