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中俄改革的比较研究 ,一直是新兴的转轨经济学关注的热点。1 998年俄罗斯爆发金融和经济危机 ,激进改革的支持者一度趋于沉寂。然而 ,从 1 999年下半年开始 ,俄罗斯经济出现转机 ,2 0 0 0年经济增长居世界第一 ,GDP增幅达 8 3 %。与此同时 ,中国经济改革进入攻坚的中期阶段。在这一关键阶段 ,渐进改革积累的矛盾日趋严峻 ,同时还面临加入WTO市场化改革滞后的外在压力。毫无疑问 ,中国经济仍要进行重大调整和改革。在这一背景下 ,国内外经济学界又在进一步探讨中俄改革的道路和方式问题。本文是对目前讨论的一个著名观点“宪政转轨”论进行分析和批驳。
The comparative study of the reform of China and Russia has always been the focus of attention in the emerging transitional economics. After the financial and economic crisis broke out in Russia in 1998, the supporters of radical reforms were at a standstill. However, from the second half of 1999, the Russian economy turned a corner. In 2001, its economy grew at the highest rate in the world, with an increase of 83% of GDP. In the meantime, China’s economic reform has entered a crucial stage of its fortification. At this crucial stage, the contradictions accumulated by gradual reform have become more and more severe. At the same time, they are also under the external pressure of lagging behind the marketization reform of China’s accession to the WTO. There is no doubt that the Chinese economy still needs major adjustments and reforms. Against this background, the domestic and international economics circles are further discussing the road and ways of the reform of China and Russia. This article analyzes and refutes the famous theory of “constitutional government transition” discussed so far.