基于概率统计中的对数正态分布，建立了预测油气田产量、可采储量、最大年产量及其发生时间的新模型，并提出了求解模型的线性试差法。通过我国两个油田的实际应用表明，该预测模型是实用有效的。 Based on the logarithmic normal distribution in probability statistics, a new model for predicting oil and gas field output, recoverable reserves, maximum annual yield and its occurrence time was established and a linear test method for solving the model was proposed. The practical application of the two oil fields in China shows that the prediction model is practical and effective.