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在油气田产量预测中,已相继出现了众多的预测模型。这些模型是相互分散的、孤立的,种类多、公式繁杂,相互间的联系又不清楚,使油气田现场研究人员难于准确应用。文中对前人在生命总量有限体系等领域的研究成果进行系统的研究,经过理论推导、综合和归纳,得到了预测油气田产量的广义模型。该广义模型通过选取不同的模型常数,进行模型简化,可以得到经济增长预测领域著名的Gompertz模型、社会各个领域广泛应用的Logistic模型、油气田产量预测的Arps双曲线递减模型、Г模型及HCZ模型等在各类生命总量有限体系广泛应用的12个预测模型,它们基本上覆盖了生命总量有限体系常用的预测模型。从而将生命总量有限体系分散的、孤立的预测模型有机地结合起来。同时,本广义模型亦可直接应用于油气田的产量预测之中。
In oil and gas field production forecasting, many prediction models have appeared one after another. These models are scattered, isolated, diverse, complex formulas, and have no clear relationship with each other, making it difficult for oil and gas field researchers to apply them accurately. In the paper, the predecessors’ research results in the field of limited life system are systematically studied. After generalized and summarized by theory, a generalized model for predicting oil and gas production is obtained. The generalized model can get the famous Gompertz model in the field of economic growth prediction, Logistic model widely used in all social fields, Arps hyperbolic decreasing model of oil and gas field yield prediction, Г model and HCZ model by selecting different model constants and simplifying the model Twelve prediction models, which are widely used in a limited number of life systems, generally cover the prediction models commonly used in the limited-life-of-life system. Thus, the scattered and isolated forecasting model with limited life system is organically combined. At the same time, the generalized model can also be applied directly to oil and gas field production forecast.