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总体来看,今年我国GDP(国内生产总值)增长将继续放慢,可能首次降至10%以下,但不会迅速滑至8%。导致GDP增长放慢的因素主要有两个:一是政策方面仍然保持偏紧态势,综合各方面的信息看,2007年国家对投资和信贷过快增长的调控力度不会减轻,这将导致投资和信贷增长继续有所放慢;二是受美国经济正步入周期性调整与我国一般贸易出口正出现趋势性放慢的影响,出口增长将可能有较大幅度的调整,预计出口增幅将首次降至20%以下。但是,经济增长放慢将是温和的放慢,而不是“硬着陆”。
Overall, China’s GDP (gross domestic product) growth will continue to slow this year and may drop below 10% for the first time this year, but will not slip rapidly to 8%. There are mainly two factors leading to the slowdown of GDP growth. First, the policy remains tight. According to the information from various sources, the state will not reduce the control over the excessive growth of investment and credit in 2007, which will lead to investment And credit growth will continue to slow down. Second, under the influence of the U.S. economy being cyclically adjusted and the general trade export of China being experiencing a trend slowdown, the export growth will likely be adjusted more drastically. It is estimated that the increase in exports will be the first time Below 20%. However, a slowdown in economic growth will be a moderate slowdown, not a “hard landing.”