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选择主要天然橡胶生产基地之一的海南岛作为研究区,通过对橡胶园风害成因的分析研究,在橡胶园风害形成环境背景和灾害数据库的基础上,利用统计方法确定评估模型中的各类参数。运用可拓理论建立海南岛橡胶风害评估可拓模型,利用GIS技术设计开发了评估系统,并以1117号强台风“纳沙”为例开展了海南岛橡胶园风害评估。评估结果:强台风“纳沙”对海南岛的橡胶灾害影响综合等级为中度灾害,橡胶园的灾害损失以2-3级灾害为主,与实地调查的灾情基本一致。
Based on the analysis of the causes of wind damage in rubber plantations, Hainan Island, one of the major production bases of natural rubber, was selected as the research area. Based on the environmental background and disaster database of rubber plantations, the statistical methods were used to determine the Class parameters. The extenics model of rubber wind disaster assessment in Hainan Island was established by extension theory. The evaluation system was designed and developed by using GIS technology. The typhoon 1177 typhoon Natsha was taken as an example to evaluate the wind damage of rubber plantation in Hainan Island. Assessment Results: The overall level of the impact of strong typhoon “Nasha ” on rubber disaster in Hainan Island is a moderate disaster. The disaster loss in rubber plantation is mainly at Grade 2-3 disasters, which is basically consistent with the disaster survey in the field.