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为合理规划民用运输机场的新建和扩建,根据机场历史加油基础数据,分析了机场航煤加油量与旅客吞吐量、飞机加油架次等主要影响因素之间的关系。编制了民用运输机场航煤加油量预测软件,采用比例系数法、线性回归法、灰色理论以及神经网络等多种预测方法,对特定机场的加油数据进行了分析,并对未来机场航煤加油量进行了预测。通过与多个机场基础数值相对比,得出结论:提出的机场航煤加油量组合预测模型预测精度较高,预测软件应用方便,可为今后机场设计与建设提供理论依据。
In order to rationally plan the construction and expansion of the airport for civil transport, according to the basic data of airport historical fueling, the relationship between the airport jet fuel and the passenger throughput, the aircraft refueling sorties and other major influencing factors are analyzed. The civil aviation airport aviation fueling quantity prediction software is compiled. The fuel consumption data of a specific airport is analyzed by the methods of proportion coefficient, linear regression, gray theory and neural network. Made a prediction. Through the comparison with the numerical results of several airports, the conclusion is drawn that the proposed forecasting model of combined aviation fueling quantity at airport is high, and the prediction software is easy to be applied, which can provide a theoretical basis for the design and construction of the airport in the future.