进行概率分析通常要经过以下三个步骤: 一、首先确定这项决策可能出现哪些事件,并为每一事件的发生估计一个概率。估计概率可根据过去的历史数据(会计、统计信息)为基础(客观概率);也可以根据决策者本身主观判断为基础(主观概率)。 二、根据估计的概率,以及各种事件的具体条件 Probabilistic analysis usually goes through the following three steps: First, determine which events are likely to occur in this decision, and estimate the probability of occurrence of each event. The estimated probability can be based on past historical data (accounting, statistical information) (objective probability); it can also be based on the subjective judgment (subjective probability) of the decision maker itself. Second, according to the estimated probability, as well as the specific conditions of various incidents