El Ni(?)o是全球气候变化最明显的信息之一,它以秘鲁沿岸海表层水温异常升高为特征。这一现象的发生,总会造成东太平洋鱼类和鸟类的大量死亡,并使南美洪水泛滥,澳大利亚和亚洲出现严重的干旱。因此,海洋学家和气象学家不仅从机制探讨出发,而且对El Ni(?)o的预报(无论用统计方法,还是用数值模拟),都给以了极大的关注。然而到目前为止,还没有人在El Ni(?)o预报方面获得真正的成功,可人们仍在做着艰苦的尝试。 El Niño is one of the most visible sources of global climate change and is characterized by anomalous surface water temperatures along the Peruvian coast. This phenomenon has always caused massive deaths of fish and birds in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, floods in South America and severe drought in Australia and Asia. Therefore, oceanographers and meteorologists have drawn great attention not only from the mechanistic discussion but also from the forecasting of El Niño (whether using statistical methods or numerical simulations). However, so far no one has been truly successful in forecasting El Niño, but people are still trying hard.