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新兴技术对经济、社会发展产生的重要作用,已逐步为各国政府和管理学界所公认。要投资新兴技术,首先要对其进行识别,以及评价和选择,然而新兴技术的高度不确定性和创造性毁灭特性给新兴技术的识别、评价和选择带来了巨大挑战。本文利用在属性集和属性测度理论基础上提出了属性综合评价和决策系统,对一组技术进行了判别,进而对其进行了分类,以求找出其中的新兴技术,为新兴技术的评价和选择,以及新兴技术的最终商业化和产业化奠定了坚实基础。
Emerging technologies for economic and social development have an important role, has gradually been recognized by governments and management scholars. To invest in emerging technologies, it must first be identified, evaluated and selected. However, the high degree of uncertainty and creative destruction of emerging technologies pose a great challenge to the identification, evaluation and selection of emerging technologies. In this paper, based on attribute set theory and attribute measure theory, a comprehensive attribute evaluation and decision-making system is proposed to discriminate a group of technologies and then to classify them in order to find out the emerging technologies for the evaluation of emerging technologies and Choice, and the final commercialization of emerging technologies and industrialization laid a solid foundation.