论文部分内容阅读
在全球化进程中,能源问题一直是各国政治、经济关注的焦点。现有研究多关注能源价格与实际汇率的关系,而忽视了国家能源禀赋本身对实际汇率的影响。本文构建了包含能源禀赋要素的两国三部门开放经济模型,阐释了能源禀赋影响实际汇率的作用机制。在实证部分,对1991—2011年68个国家的数据进行面板回归分析,结果显示能源禀赋会对实际汇率产生显著影响。在控制其他变量影响的情况下,一国能源禀赋越充足,则本币实际汇率越高;反之,则越低。此外,本文还验证了实际汇率的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应假说。据此,当中国能源进口依赖度不断上升时,人民币应适当贬值。
In the process of globalization, energy issues have always been the focus of political and economic concerns in all countries. Existing studies have focused more on the relationship between energy prices and real exchange rates, while ignoring the impact of national energy endowments on real exchange rates. This paper constructs an open economic model for the three sectors of both countries that includes the elements of energy endowment, and explains the mechanism of the impact of energy endowments on the real exchange rate. In the empirical part, a panel regression analysis of data from 68 countries from 1991 to 2011 shows that energy endowments will have a significant impact on the real exchange rate. In the case of controlling the influence of other variables, the more adequate the energy endowment of a country, the higher the real exchange rate of the currency; if not, the lower it is. In addition, the paper also validates the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis of the real exchange rate. Accordingly, when China’s dependence on energy imports continues to rise, the yuan should be depreciated appropriately.