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东海海域水质污染严重,长江口、杭州湾和象山港等重点区域劣四类水质面积居高不下,无机氮是最主要的污染因子,对无机氮未来趋势的预测及风险空间分布的分析可为减缓和治理东海海域污染提供管理依据。基于2002~2013年东海无机氮的趋势性监测数据,利用IDW插值和回归分析方法对其发展趋势进行预测,并根据其发展趋势预测今后3 a东海海域无机氮含量,划分了东海无机氮污染的高、中、较低和低风险区,为东海无机氮污染控制提供科学依据。
In the East China Sea, water quality is seriously polluted. In the Yangtze Estuary, Hangzhou Bay and Xiangshan Port, the areas with inferior water quality rank the highest. Inorganic nitrogen is the most important pollutant. The prediction of the future trend of inorganic nitrogen and the spatial distribution of risk may be Slow down and control pollution in the East China Sea to provide management basis. Based on the trend monitoring data of inorganic nitrogen in the East China Sea from 2002 to 2013, the trend of inorganic nitrogen in the East China Sea was predicted by IDW interpolation and regression analysis. According to its development trend, High, medium, low and low risk areas, to provide a scientific basis for the control of inorganic nitrogen pollution in the East China Sea.