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本文构建理论模型分析了汇率行为对出口贸易流向的影响,并在此基础上利用我国与22位主要贸易伙伴的相关数据进行了实证检验。分析结果表明:人民币汇率水平变动以及波动风险强弱将导致我国出口贸易流向的改变,其影响程度和方向根据出口产品类别的不同而存在差异性。人民币汇率水平与出口贸易流向的关系还与贸易对方的进口倾向有关。将倾向于进口劳动密集型产品的贸易方与倾向于进口资本和技术密集型产品的贸易方相比,我国对前者的出口份额与人民币汇率水平负相关;对后者的出口份额与人民币汇率水平正相关。
This paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze the impact of exchange rate behavior on the export trade flow, and on this basis, an empirical test is made by using the data of China’s 22 major trading partners. The analysis shows that: the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of fluctuation will lead to the change of the export trade in our country. The extent and direction of the impact vary depending on the types of export products. The relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the direction of export trade is also related to the import tendency of the trade counterpart. Compared with the trade parties that tend to import labor-intensive products and those who prefer to import capital and technology-intensive products, China’s export share to the former is negatively correlated with the exchange rate of the RMB; the latter’s export share is negatively correlated with the exchange rate of the RMB Positive correlation.