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新古典增长理论研究和经验研究表明:GDP增长率和就业增长率的变动趋势存在着一致性。奥肯法则也揭示了这种联系。但通过计算发现:我国1998年开始实施的积极财政政策所拉动的经济增长在一定程度上是排挤就业的,它偏离了索络的经验研究数据,也同奥肯法则的数据相偏离。是什么原因导致了这个结果?2008年的新一轮积极财政政策,如何使GDP增长率和就业增长率的变动趋势保持一致性,这是本文分析的主题。关键是积极财政政策要促使市场本身具有一种内生增长机制,使积极财政政策作用于市场机制内部运行中。为此,新一轮的积极财政政策中的政府投资要紧紧围绕提升民间投资信心;财政支出紧紧围绕提升居民消费信心和构建具有就业激励机制的财政保障政策;财税政策促进技术创新要同技术溢出的外部性建立关联。
Neoclassical growth theory and empirical studies show that there is consistency between the trends of GDP growth and employment growth. Okun’s law also reveals this connection. However, it is found through calculation that the economic growth driven by the proactive fiscal policy started in 1998 in China is to a certain extent crowded out of employment. It deviates from the empirical data of research and from the data of Okun’s Law. What led to this result? The new round of proactive fiscal policy in 2008, how to make the GDP growth rate and employment growth trend of change consistent, this is the theme of this paper. The key is that a proactive fiscal policy should promote the market itself to have an endogenous growth mechanism so that a proactive fiscal policy can function within the internal operation of the market mechanism. For this reason, the government investment in the new round of active fiscal policies should focus on enhancing confidence in private investment; fiscal expenditures should focus on improving consumer confidence and building a fiscal guarantee policy with employment incentives; fiscal and tax policies to promote technological innovation must be accompanied by technology Overflow of externalities to establish the association.