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在分析目前铁路客流预测研究方法的基础上,根据客运专线是否建成划分为两个阶段选择不同的客流预测方法。依据客运专线客运量预测方案的实施步骤,探讨了初期客运量预测和运营期客运量预测方法。对于正常运营的客运专线,采用分时间周期的客流预测方法,可以对日常客流、特殊时期客流,以及一周中的任意一天或一天中的任意时段客流进行预测,针对性较强,是一种全新的预测思路。
Based on the analysis of the current research methods of railway passenger flow forecasting, different passenger flow forecasting methods are selected according to whether the Passenger Dedicated Line is completed and divided into two phases. According to the implementation steps of passenger traffic volume forecasting scheme in passenger dedicated line, the methods of early passenger traffic forecasting and passenger traffic forecasting in operation period are discussed. For normal operation of the passenger dedicated line, the use of sub-time-based passenger flow forecasting method, you can daily passenger flow, passenger traffic at special times, as well as any day of the week or any day passenger traffic forecast, targeted, is a new The prediction of thinking.