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根据林木的生长规律，运用系统动力学原理，模拟了用材林资源的动态变化，并以“六五”时期森林资源清查结果检验了模拟效果：用材林总蓄积量的精度超过９５％。在建模的基础上，预测了在三种不同资源消费水平下，从“六五”至“九五”时期用材林资源的趋势变化。预计我国用材林总蓄积量在本世纪末可望回升，达到６７—７５亿ｍ３左右，但成熟林资源趋紧，处于下降态势．建议采用“限额或适度消耗模式”．
According to the law of growth of forest trees, the dynamic changes of plantation resources were simulated by the principles of system dynamics, and the simulation results were verified by the inventory results of forest resources in the period of the Sixth Five-Year Plan. The accuracy of the total volume of plantation forests exceeded 95%. Based on the modeling, the trend of the use of timber resources from the “Sixth Five-Year Plan” to the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period is predicted under the consumption level of three different resources. It is estimated that the total volume of timber plantation in China is expected to rise by the end of this century to about 6.7-7.5 billion m3, but the resources of mature forests are tightening and declining. Recommended “limit or moderate consumption mode.”