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目的探讨气候气象因素对河北省鼠疫疫源地内长爪沙鼠种群密度的影响。方法收集1990-2013年河北省鼠疫自然疫源地鼠疫主要宿主动物长爪沙鼠密度和同期气象数据,利用逐步回归筛选变量,用多重线性回归分析气象因素与长爪沙鼠密度的相关性及是否存在滞后作用。结果 1990-2013年河北省鼠疫疫源地内长爪沙鼠密度为0~3.75只/hm2,气象因素中前一年的降水量、前一年平均相对湿度、前一年日降水量≥0.1 mm的日数与长爪沙鼠密度密切相关。结论气象因素可能是河北省鼠疫疫源地内长爪沙鼠密度变化的重要影响因素,并且对长爪沙鼠密度变化存在着一年时间的滞后效应。
Objective To investigate the effects of climatic and meteorological factors on population density of Meriones unguiculatus in plague origin in Hebei province. Methods The density and synoptic data of Mongolian gerbils, a major host animal in the plague natural plague area of Hebei Province from 1990 to 2013, were collected. The relationship between meteorological factors and the density of Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus) was screened by stepwise regression. Is there any hysteresis? Results The density of Meriones unguiculatus in plague foci of Hebei Province from 1990 to 2013 was 0-3.75 / hm2. The precipitation in the previous year in meteorological factors, the average relative humidity in the previous year, the daily precipitation in the previous year ≥0.1 mm The number of days is closely related to the density of gerbils. Conclusion The meteorological factors may be the important influential factors of the density variation of M. glabriosides in the plague foci of Hebei Province, and there is a one-year lag effect on the density variation of G. occidentalis.