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采用全国植保总站编制的“绿博士”预测分析软件,对辽宁省水稻主产区丹东地区和盘锦地区稻瘟病历年流行情况与气象因素间关系,进行单因素多元逐步线性回归分析,分别构建了两地区非特殊灾变年份稻瘟病流行中期预测模型,复相关系数分别为0.97915和0.96958,拟合度分别为78.57%和92.3%,可用于指导生产防治。
Using the “Green Doctor” predictive analysis software compiled by the National Plant Protection Station, single-factor and multiple stepwise linear regression analysis was conducted on the relationship between meteorological factors and the prevalence of rice blast in Dandong and Panjin areas of Liaoning Province, The medium-term prediction model of blast in the non-special catastrophe years in the region showed that the correlation coefficients were 0.97915 and 0.96958 respectively, and the fitting degrees were 78.57% and 92.3% respectively, which could be used to guide the production control.