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通过本县小麦感病期内逐日气象观测资料统计分析,发现在该期内各日2:00、8:00、20:00的空气相对湿度达85％,14:00达82％,且在此湿度标准上持续30h以上,平均气温达12℃的湿段天气累计持续时间长,小麦赤霉病发生重。依据湿段天气在小麦感病的穗期开展赤霉病的短期定量预报,10年次的回报病穗率误差为2个百分点左右,7年次的预报病穗率误差为0.29～5.2个百分点。
Through the statistical analysis of daily meteorological observation data during the wheat susceptible period in this county, it was found that the relative humidity of air reached 85% at 2: 00,8: 00,20: 00 and reached 82% at 14:00 at each day in this period, This humidity standard for more than 30h, the average temperature of 12 ℃ wet weather accumulated a long duration, the occurrence of heavy head blight. According to the short-term quantitative forecast of scab in the wet-season weather at the heading stage of wheat susceptibility, the error rate of disease incidence at 10-year return was about 2 percentage points, and the error rate of forecast panicle disease rate at 7 years was 0.29-5.2 percentage points .