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随着海洋开发利用的纵深发展,海洋灾害成为影响中国海洋经济持续健康发展的因素。通过构建海洋灾害损失指数,评估1989~2011年中国沿海地区海洋灾害损失情况,利用格兰杰因果检验与VAR模型分析海洋灾害损失与沿海地区经济增长的动态关系。实证分析结果表明,海洋灾害虽然对沿海地区的发展带来直接的经济损失,但并不是影响沿海地区经济增长的主要因素;而沿海地区经济增长是导致海洋灾害损失的格兰杰原因,且具有持久性影响。鉴于此,沿海地区在提高海洋灾害应急管理能力的同时,科学发展海洋经济成为降低海洋灾害损失的正确选择。
With the deepening development of marine development and utilization, marine disasters have become the factors influencing the sustained and healthy development of China’s marine economy. Through the construction of marine disaster loss index, the marine disaster losses in China’s coastal areas from 1989 to 2011 were assessed. The dynamic relationship between marine disaster losses and coastal economic growth was analyzed by Granger causality test and VAR model. The results of empirical analysis show that although marine disasters bring direct economic losses to the development of the coastal areas, they are not the main factors affecting the economic growth in the coastal areas. However, the economic growth in the coastal areas is the Granger cause of marine disasters, Persistence impact. In view of this, while enhancing the emergency management capability of marine disasters in coastal areas, scientifically developing the marine economy has become the correct choice for reducing the losses caused by marine disasters.