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本文基于2001年1月至2014年3月我国猪肉、鸡肉、牛肉和羊肉的月度数据,运用X12季节调整模型和H-P滤波法分析得出我国主要肉类价格波动规律,并进一步运用协方差分析法分析长期趋势、季节性变动、不规则变动对我国主要肉类价格波动的贡献。结果表明,价格变化的长期趋势是影响肉类价格波动的主要驱动因素,并根据研究结论提出相关政策建议。
Based on the monthly data of pork, chicken, beef and mutton in China from January 2001 to March 2014, the paper uses the X12 seasonal adjustment model and the HP filter method to analyze the fluctuation of the main meat prices in our country and further uses the covariance analysis Analysis of long-term trends, seasonal changes, irregular changes in China’s major meat price fluctuations. The results show that the long-term trend of price changes is the main factor that affects the price fluctuation of meat and proposes the relevant policy recommendations according to the conclusion of the study.