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主要探究了我国粮食最低价收购政策的执行效果.分区域分品种对我国粮食种植面积进行协整关系建模,对其显著影响指标进行归纳;根据变异系数和波动极值将21世纪至今我国粮食市场价分为四个阶段,研究其波动规律,采用相关性分析探究了影响市场价的内外源因素,证明了粮食市场价和最低收购价之间互为因果;最后采用线性优化模型和蒙特卡罗仿真两种方法构造了最低收购价合理定价模型,对2017年度小麦和籼稻最低收购价进行了区间预测.
Mainly investigates the implementation effect of the policy of purchasing the lowest grain price in our country.Considerating the cointegration relationship of grain planting area in our country by sub-region, we summarize the significant influence index of it.According to the coefficient of variation and the extreme value of fluctuation, The market price is divided into four stages to study the law of its volatility, and the correlation analysis is used to explore the internal and external factors that affect the market price. It proves that the market price of food and the minimum purchase price each other cause and effect. Finally, linear optimization model and Monte Carlo Luo simulation two methods to construct the minimum purchase price reasonable pricing model for the 2017 annual wheat and indica minimum purchase price for a range of forecasts.