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本文详细考察了本轮通货膨胀的特点,同时,利用VAR等经济计量模型对影响CPI的主要因素进行动态影响分析,并对物价走势做出预测。研究表明,本轮物价上涨既保持了以往的一般规律,也有鲜明的新特点。预测物价于2011年3季度结束上行趋势,此后进入本轮周期的下行阶段。预计2011年CPI上涨率为5.5%,2012年物价上涨压力将有所减缓,全年上涨3.8%左右。文章最后提出相关的政策建议。
This paper examines the characteristics of this round of inflation in detail. At the same time, we use the econometric models such as VAR to analyze the main influencing factors of CPI and forecast the price trend. Research shows that the current round of price increases not only keep the general rules of the past, but also have distinct new features. The forecast price will end the uptrend in 3Q11, and then enter the downward phase of the current cycle. It is estimated that the inflation rate of CPI will be 5.5% in 2011, and the price inflation pressure will slow down in 2012, increasing by 3.8% for the whole year. The article concludes with relevant policy recommendations.