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为了提高棉铃虫年发生量长期预报的准确性,笔者将本所(赣北州地)多年测报观察的数据资料进行多因子综合相关试测。现整理报告如下。 一、多因子综合相关试测的计算 (一)全年20瓦黑光灯下棉铃虫蛾量 经综合分析和两数相关系数的“显著”性测定,笔者认为影响全年20瓦黑光灯下棉铃虫蛾量长期预报的因子虽较复杂,然其主要的有当年1月上旬降雨量,3月中旬平均气温,5月上旬平均气温,5月中旬降雨量等(表1)。 经两数相关分析及计算两数相关直线回归预测式其结果见表2。
In order to improve the accuracy of the long-term forecast of the annual occurrence of cotton bollworm, the author conducted the multi-factor comprehensive correlation test on the data of many years observation and observation by the institute (in northern Jiangxi Province). Now finishing report is as follows. First, the calculation of multi-factor related test (a) the amount of 20-watt black light bollworm moths by comprehensive analysis and two significant correlation coefficient “significant” determination, the author believes that the impact of 20-watt black light bulb The long-term forecast of moth is quite complicated. However, the main factors are the rainfall in early January in that year, the average temperature in mid-March, the average temperature in early May and the rainfall in mid-May (Table 1). The results of two linear regression predictions with two numbers correlation analysis and two numbers correlation are shown in Table 2.