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为了深化军机飞行安全管理,需开展飞行安全预警工作,而安全预警方法是影响军机飞行安全预警结果是否合理可靠的关键因素。从“人、机、环境、组织因素”4个方面构建了军机飞行安全预警的指标体系;用集对分析方法中综合联系度代替可变模糊集方法中的相对差异度,提出了飞行安全预警的集对分析-可变模糊方法。运用集对分析-可变模糊方法对4个样本进行预警分析,并将其结果与模糊综合评价和灰色综合评价的预警结果进行对比分析。3种方法对样本2、3、4的预警结果一致,而对样本1集对分析-可变模糊方法的预警结果为Ⅲ级,模糊综合评价法和灰色综合评价法的预警结果为Ⅱ级。通过分析可知,样本1的综合安全状态倾向于Ⅲ级。结果表明,集对分析-可变模糊方法的结果更为合理,方法是可行的、有效的。
In order to deepen the flight flight safety management of military aircraft, flight safety early-warning needs to be carried out, and the safety early-warning method is the key factor that affects whether the early warning results of military flight flight safety are reasonable and reliable. This paper constructs an index system of early warning of aircraft flight safety from four aspects of “human, machine, environment and organizational factors”, and puts forward the concept that the relative degree of difference in the variable fuzzy set method is replaced by the comprehensive connection degree of set pair analysis method Set Pair Analysis of Safety Early Warning - Variable Fuzzy Method. A set pair analysis - variable fuzzy method was used to carry out early warning analysis of 4 samples, and the results were compared with those of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and gray comprehensive evaluation. The early warning results of samples 2, 3, and 4 are the same for the three methods, while the early warning result of variable pair fuzzy analysis is Ⅲ for sample 1, and the result of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and gray comprehensive evaluation is Ⅱ. It can be seen from the analysis that the comprehensive safety status of Sample 1 tends to be Grade III. The results show that the result of set pair analysis - variable fuzzy method is more reasonable and the method is feasible and effective.