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由于多种经济因素的共同作用,农业银行的不良贷款率高居国有商业银行的首位,对我国金融秩序和经济运行都造成了巨大威胁,其防范和化解任务十分艰巨。首先,本文阐述了不良贷款的定义和分类,介绍了不良贷款的基本理论,并探讨了中国农业银行不良贷款的现状与发展。其次,选取了GDP增长率、货币供应量增长率、资本充足率、银行规模、拨备覆盖率和净利差六个经济指标。最后,对影响农业银行不良贷款率的经济因素进行实证分析,得出中国农业银行不良贷款率受此六个因素影响,并均与之呈负相关关系。其中净利差、自身规模对不良贷款率的影响关系较大,GDP增长率影响较小。根据回归结果,又进一步对农业银行下一步如何控制不良贷款率提出了几点建议:提高自身盈利能力,增强自身在市场中的核心竞争力;控制规模,提高内部管理效率;提高拨备覆盖率,增强风险应对能力。
Owing to the combination of various economic factors, the non-performing loan ratio of Agricultural Bank ranks first among the state-owned commercial banks, posing a huge threat to China’s financial order and economic operation. The task of preventing and resolving this problem is arduous. First of all, this article describes the definition and classification of non-performing loans, introduces the basic theory of non-performing loans, and discusses the status quo and development of Agricultural Bank of China non-performing loans. Secondly, six economic indicators, GDP growth rate, money supply growth rate, capital adequacy ratio, bank size, provision coverage and net interest margin, are selected. Finally, empirical analysis of the economic factors affecting the NPL ratio of Agricultural Bank shows that the NPL ratio of Agricultural Bank of China is affected by these six factors, all of which are negatively correlated with it. The impact of net interest spread and self-scale on the NPL ratio is relatively large, but the impact of GDP growth rate is relatively small. According to the result of the regression, we put forward some suggestions on how to control the non-performing loan ratio of Agricultural Bank in the next step: to improve its profitability and enhance its core competitiveness in the market; to control the scale and improve the efficiency of internal management; to increase the coverage ratio , To enhance risk response capabilities.