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企业可以在整个计划时期内任意时刻订货,离销售季节开始时刻越近,市场需求的预测值越准确,但提前期较短时单位采购成本会较高。因此企业需要在更准确的市场需求预测和采购成本之间进行权衡。当市场需求预测值的调整量为任意给定连续分布时,证明企业最优库存策略为basestock策略,该策略必定存在且唯一,建立最优库存策略的求解算法。通过分析参数变化对最优库存策略的影响,说明企业如何在市场需求预测和采购成本之间进行权衡。数值算例表明在预测更新过程条件下,最优库存策略与经典报童模型有较大的差异,且可以显著降低总成本。
Companies can order at any time during the entire planning period. The closer to the beginning of the sales season, the more accurate the market demand forecast, but the shorter the lead time, the higher the unit purchase cost. Therefore, companies need to make a trade-off between more accurate market demand forecasting and procurement costs. When the adjusted amount of market demand forecast value is any given continuous distribution, it is proved that the enterprise’s optimal inventory strategy is the basestock strategy. This strategy must exist and is unique, and the algorithm for solving the optimal inventory strategy is established. By analyzing the influence of parameter changes on the optimal inventory strategy, it is illustrated how the company balances the market demand forecast with the purchase cost. The numerical example shows that under the conditions of forecasting and updating process, the optimal inventory strategy is quite different from the classical newsboy model, and the total cost can be significantly reduced.