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近年来,中国旅游业的发展举世瞩目,世界旅游业界日益关注的“中国现象”逐渐成为旅游行业的重要话题。影响旅游业发展的因素主要有国内生产总值、国民收入、居民可自由支配时间以及社会进步和居民消费观念的改变。其中,五一劳动节自1999年起实施“黄金周”假期,至2008年取消,改为三天小长假,一方面假期时间的长短会对旅游业发展有一定程度的影响。因此,本文利用山东省1995-2012年的时间序列数据采用逐步回归的分析方法,建立计量模型,对影响旅游业发展的因素进行定量分析。研究结果表明,国内生产总值、国民收入的增长对山东省旅游业的发展都有至关重要的影响,“假期效应”也是推动旅游业和谐快速发展的重要因素,并且劳动节由“黄金周”改为三天促进了山东省旅游收入的增加。
In recent years, the development of China’s tourism industry has drawn worldwide attention. The “China phenomenon” increasingly paid attention to by the world’s tourism industry has gradually become an important topic in the tourism industry. The main factors that affect the development of tourism are GDP, national income, residents ’discretionary time, changes in social progress and the concept of residents’ consumption. Among them, the May Day Labor Day has implemented the “Golden Week” holiday since 1999, and it has been canceled in 2008 to be replaced by a three-day small holiday. On the one hand, the length of the holiday period will have a certain impact on the development of the tourism industry. Therefore, by using step-by-step regression analysis of time series data from 1995 to 2012 in Shandong Province, the econometric model is established to quantitatively analyze the factors affecting the development of tourism. The results show that the growth of both gross domestic product and national income has a crucial impact on the development of tourism in Shandong Province. The “holiday effect” is also an important factor in promoting the harmonious and rapid development of tourism industry. And Labor Day consists of “Golden Week” to three days to promote the increase in tourism revenue in Shandong Province.