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电力建设项目合同风险具有非线性、时变性和不确定性,所以对合同风险研究就显得非常重要。本文在详细分析电力建设项目合同风险影响因素的基础上,建立了电力建设项目合同风险评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评价确定各风险因素的数值化评价值,结合改进的Elman神经网络模型对电力建设项目合同风险进行综合评判,提出了电建项目合同风险的预警与防范。通过对某电力集团的电力建设项目合同风险的评价验证了改进模型的适用性。
The contract risk of power construction projects is nonlinear, time-varying and uncertain, so it is very important to study the contract risk. Based on the detailed analysis of the influencing factors of contract risk in power construction project, this paper establishes the contract risk evaluation index system of power construction project, and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to determine the numerical evaluation value of each risk factor. Combined with the improved Elman neural network model, Project contract risk comprehensive evaluation, put forward the electric power project contract risk warning and prevention. Through evaluating the contract risk of a power group’s power construction project, the applicability of the improved model is verified.