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随着经济的高速发展,陕西能源消费量剧增,而导致能源消费量变化的因素很多,如何甄别出关键的影响因素并据之进行控制,是理论和实践界关注的焦点。基于1995～2009年陕西能源消费量及表征经济发展的诸变量的统计数据,借鉴因素分解及因果关系分析技术,定量研究陕西省能源消费的影响因素,通过因素分解技术,发现经济总量、能源消费强度及产业结构的变动是引起陕西能源消费量变动的主要因素,通过因果关系分析技术,发现经济总量、能源消费强度及国民经济中第二产业产值比重是能源消费总量的格兰杰因,并据之提出地方政府在节能减排约束下保持经济增长的政策建议。
With the rapid economic development, the energy consumption in Shaanxi has increased sharply, and there are many factors that lead to changes in energy consumption. How to identify and control the key influencing factors is the focus of both theory and practice. Based on the statistic data of energy consumption in Shaanxi from 1995 to 2009 and the variables that characterize the economic development, the factors affecting energy consumption in Shaanxi Province are quantitatively studied by using factorization and causality analysis techniques. Through factor decomposition techniques, it is found that the total economic output, energy The change of consumption intensity and industrial structure is the main factor that causes the change of energy consumption in Shaanxi. Through the causal analysis technology, it is found that the total economic output, the intensity of energy consumption and the GDP of the secondary industry in the national economy are the total energy consumption of Granger Because, and according to the proposed local government to maintain economic growth under the constraints of energy-saving emission reduction policy recommendations.