产品扩散大多以创新产品和耐用消费品为研究对象,与社会经济生活更密切的快速消费品(FMCG)产品扩散研究相对较少。传统模型无法解决消费者高频次重置购买和冲动型购买习惯下的扩散问题,为此,将销售额分为首次购买和重置购买两部分,首次购买用Bass模型描述,重置购买用一个包含重置购买参数、价格和广告影响的函数描述,建立了FMCG市场扩散模型。运用乳制品数据进行实证,发现FMCG产品扩散中外部影响程度较高,价格影响程度较低,少量忠诚客户带来更高收益。通过对比分析,模型在拟合度、预测精度和研究结论合理性方面都取得了较好的结果。 Most of the product diffusion focuses on innovative products and consumer durables, and relatively few studies on FMCG product diffusion have more researches on social economic life. The traditional model can not solve the problem of proliferation under high frequency reset purchase and impulse buying habits. For this purpose, the sales volume is divided into first purchase and reset purchase. The first purchase is described by the Bass model, and the purchase is reset A description of the function that contains the reset purchase parameters, prices, and advertising impact established the FMCG market diffusion model. Empirical analysis using dairy products data shows that FMCG products have a higher degree of external impact, lower price impact, and a small amount of loyal customers with higher returns. Through comparative analysis, the model has achieved good results in terms of fitting degree, prediction accuracy and reasonableness of the conclusions of the study.