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以东北三省春玉米种植区为研究区域,利用当地地面气象观测资料、农业气象观测站春玉米多年试验资料和县级春玉米实际产量资料,使用验证后的农业生产系统模拟模型(APSIM-Maize),分析研究区域春玉米1961—2015年不同水平产量潜力及实际产量的时空分布特征,并解析气候波动对产量潜力的影响。结果表明:1961—2015年,研究区域春玉米潜在产量平均值为12.2 t·hm-2,且呈现明显的经向和纬向空间分布,即由南向北递减、西部高于东部。研究区域春玉米可获得产量平均值为11.3 t·hm-2,与潜在产量呈相似的分布特征。在目前农户的栽培水平下,春玉米农户潜在产量和农户实际产量全区多年平均值分别为6.5和4.5 t·hm-2。在品种和栽培管理措施不变的条件下,研究区潜在产量、可获得产量和农户潜在产量总体呈显著减少趋势,减幅分别为0.34、0.25和0.10 t·hm-2·(10 a)-1。农户实际产量呈增加趋势,增幅为1.27 t·hm-2·(10 a)-1。气候波动使东北三省春玉米潜在产量、可获得产量和农户潜在产量年际间波动范围分别为10.0~14.4、9.8~13.3和4.4~8.5 t·hm-2。
Using the spring maize planting area in the three northeastern provinces as the research area, the simulated agricultural production system simulation model (APSIM-Maize) was used according to the local ground meteorological observation data, years of experimental data of agricultural meteorological observatories and actual production data of county-level spring maize. , Analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of yield potential and actual yield of spring maize at different levels from 1961 to 2015 in the study area and analyzed the influence of climate fluctuations on yield potential. The results showed that from 1961 to 2015, the average potential yield of spring maize in the study area was 12.2 t · hm-2, showing a significant spatial distribution in the meridional and latitudinal directions, decreasing from south to north and higher in the west than in the east. The average yield of available spring maize in the study area was 11.3 t · hm-2, which was similar to the potential yield. Under the current cultivation level of peasant households, the average annual yields of spring maize farmers and actual output of peasant households are 6.5 and 4.5 t · hm-2, respectively. Under the same variety and cultivation management practices, the potential yield, available yield and potential yield of farmers in the study area all showed a significant decrease overall, with a decrease of 0.34, 0.25 and 0.10 t · hm -2 · (10 a) - 1. The actual output of farmers showed an increasing trend, an increase of 1.27 t · hm-2 · (10 a) -1. The fluctuation range of the potential yield of spring maize, available yield and potential yield of farmers in the three northeastern provinces in China were 10.0-14.4, 9.8-13.3 and 4.4-8.5 t · hm-2, respectively.