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一、引言贝叶斯方法是以贝叶斯定理为基础的统计推断方法,在其它科学及工程技术中有广泛的应用。近二十年来,在可靠性工程中的应用,显示了广阔的前景。学过初等概率论的人,都知道贝叶斯定理,在有的文献中称为逆概率定理。贝叶斯定理通常以两种形式出现,一种是关于随机事件形式的贝叶斯定理;另一种是关于随机变量形式(或随机向量)的贝叶斯定理。本文介绍前者在可靠性工程中的一些应用,至于后者的一些应用将在另一文中讨论。概括地说,贝叶斯定理就是用试验中获得的观测数据修正事件的验前概率而计算事件的验后概率的公式。
I. INTRODUCTION The Bayesian method is a statistical inference method based on the Bayesian theorem. It is widely used in other sciences and engineering. In the past 20 years, the application in reliability engineering has shown a bright future. Have learned elementary probability theory, are aware of the Bayesian theorem, in some literature known as the inverse probability theorem. The Bayesian theorem usually comes in two forms, one is the Bayesian theorem on the form of random events, and the other is the Bayesian theorem on the form of random variables (or random vectors). This article describes some of the former’s applications in reliability engineering, and some of the latter’s applications are discussed in another article. In a nutshell, the Bayesian theorem is the formula for calculating the posterior probability of an event by correcting the pre-test probability of the event with the observed data obtained in the experiment.